When is the best time to buy bitcoin?
How attractive is right now for stacking bitcoin? The needle is the verdict. Read the action label below.Try it: drag the needle, twist the signals, or hit play to start a sim.
Conditions are favorable · the gauge says STACK NOW. Sentiment is darkening, valuation is reasonable. Historically rewards stackers who act before the all-clear sounds. Top contributors: Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple, MSTR mNAV.
Best window in next 7 days: Mon 9pm–11pm ET
“Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own.”
The Bitcoin Buying Gauge is a contrarian instrument by design. It glows brightest exactly when traditional sentiment is at its worst · when normal people are scared, valuations have compressed, and short-sellers are dominating the order book.
Specifically, the gauge tilts toward STACK HUGE when:
Translated: when your group chat is depressing, your barber is confidently explaining why bitcoin is dead this time, and your normie friends finally stop asking · that's when this page lights up.
It almost never feels good to act when the gauge says it should. That's the entire point of the page · to give you a single place to check whether the divergence between sentiment and data is in your favor. Higher score = bigger divergence = better moment to act on conviction rather than feelings.
Right now the gauge says STACK NOW (67/100). The divergence is real but not extreme, the kind of setup that rewards conviction without requiring heroism.
Opens X with a pre-filled tweet. Anyone clicking the link sees a live preview card with today's score (auto-refreshes when the gauge moves.
Share on X →Each cell is one hour. Brighter = predicted better entry window relative to the rest of this 7-day view. Hover any cell for its score; the current hour pulses; the three best upcoming hours are marked ★.
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How many sats does your dollar buy right now, and how does that compare to Bitcoin's recent prices?
+% means today gives you more sats per dollar than that past moment did · today is the relatively better entry. −%means the past was a better deal (you missed a dip). All comparisons use Bitcoin's actual closing price at each lookback window.
Pick a weekly amount and a start date and see what your stack would look like today. Walks the actual hourly price series.
Backtest uses Bitcoin's actual hourly closing prices over the last ~400 days. One purchase per week at the closing price nearest to that week's start. Doesn't model exchange fees or spread. Past performance is not a forecast, but the math compounds.
One email when the Buying Gauge crosses into STACK NOW or STACK HUGE territory · or into HOLD on the euphoric end. Both extremes are noteworthy. Most months you'll get zero emails; on extreme weeks you'll get one a day at most.
Email is stored at Resend (the sending provider). One-click unsubscribe in every email. We'll never share or sell it. No marketing emails · alerts only.
The Bitcoin Buying Gauge answers one question for accumulators: is now a better-than-average time to deploy capital?
It is a contrarian answer by design. The gauge lights up brightest when Fear & Greed is screaming sell, when shorts are paying longs, when the average bitcoin holder is underwater on cost basis, and when the most public bitcoin treasury stops trading at a premium to its coins. In other words: when buying feels worst.
The framing matters. The page assumes you're going to buy bitcoin eventually · maybe today, maybe across this week, maybe with a paycheck arriving Friday. There is no "bad" time to stack on a long enough horizon. There are better times, though, and the difference between a good entry and a poor one compounds in sats.
So the verdict is a single number from 0 to 100, with a tier word for at-a-glance reading:
The score blends ten signals. Each signal contributes a weighted vote; when a data source is temporarily unavailable, its weight redistributes proportionally across the survivors. Signals are organized into four rough buckets: (MVRV, Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple), (funding rate), (Fear & Greed, price-vs-30d, realized vol, time-of-day, day-of-week), and (MSTR mNAV).
Galaxy Mind, "Bitcoin Buying Gauge," https://galaxymind.space/stack, accessed May 11, 2026.
Market cap divided by realized cap. Below 1.0 means the average bitcoin holder is underwater · historically a strong accumulation zone. Above 3.0 is rare and tends to coincide with cycle tops.
How far price has stretched from its long-run trend. Below 1.0 puts you in 'cheap relative to the cycle' territory; above 2.4 has historically marked frothy markets.
Today's daily issuance value (in USD) divided by its 365-day moving average. When this drops below 0.5, miners are earning far less than they have been on average · they capitulate, sell coins, and accumulators benefit. Every major bottom (Dec 2018, Mar 2020, Nov 2022) printed below 0.5; every major top printed above 4.0.
How much long-side traders are paying short-side traders to hold a position open (or vice versa). Negative funding means shorts are paying longs · i.e., the market is positioned bearishly. That's contrarian-bullish for spot buyers.
A composite of social sentiment, volatility, and momentum. We invert it: extreme fear is a green light for accumulators, extreme greed is a yellow flag.
Where price sits relative to its 30-day moving average. Trading below the 30d MA tends to revert upward; trading well above tends to mean-revert downward.
Annualized volatility from the last 30 days of returns. Quiet markets (vol < 40%) often precede moves; very high vol (> 100%) often brackets capitulation lows.
Bitcoin trades 24/7, but it doesn't trade evenly. We look at the average hourly return over the last ~2 years for the current ET hour. Hours that have historically been weak become better entry windows.
Same idea as Hour-of-Day but for weekdays. Sunday afternoons and weekday Asian-session opens have historically shown different baselines than US trading hours.
MicroStrategy's market cap divided by the value of its bitcoin holdings. When this premium compresses below 1.05×, treasury equity is trading near or below its underlying BTC value · historically correlated with BTC bottoms because the marginal sophisticated buyer prefers spot at those moments.
The heatmap above the cockpit shows 168 cells (7 days × 24 hours) of predicted entry attractiveness. Each cell blends three things: today's score (decayed linearly toward neutral as the forecast extends out), the historical pattern for that hour-of-day in ET, and the historical pattern for that day-of-week. The brightest cells are your best windows. The current cell pulses.
This is not a price prediction. It's a relative-attractiveness forecast: which hours look like better-than-average accumulation windows given everything we know right now.
This is a thinking tool, not advice. Past patterns don't guarantee future ones. Time-of-day and day-of-week effects are real but small; on a horizon of years, they're a rounding error compared to just showing up consistently.
The data is fetched on every page load and cached briefly. Some signals (block height, funding rate) refresh quickly; others (200-day MA, MVRV) are slow-moving by design. If a signal shows as unavailable, the upstream temporarily isn't responding, the score still works, it just routes around the missing input.
Built by @GalaxyMind. Open to suggestions. DMs are open. All views are wrong; some are useful.
How attractive is right now for stacking bitcoin? The needle is the verdict. Read the action label below.Try it: drag the needle, twist the signals, or hit play to start a sim.
The ten inputs voting on the verdict above. Each gauge fills proportional to its reading · orange fill = buy signal, icy blue fill = wait. The fuller a gauge glows, the harder that signal is pushing the verdict. Peak-pegged gauges throw lava sparks; floor-pegged gauges throw ice shards. Tap the i on any card to learn what that signal measures.
MVRV 1.52 · near long-run average.
Price is -1.3% vs 200d MA.
0.89× · below trend; miner economics favor accumulation.
-0.0060% · shorts paying longs (bearish positioning, contrarian buy).
48 (Neutral).
5.4% vs 30d MA.
33.6% annualized.
Current ET hour: 19:00.
Today: Mon.
1.02× · compressed (treasury-cheap, often correlates with BTC bottoms).