Should you buy bitcoin right now? Ten on-chain + market signals scored 0–100 · higher = better entry.
Acquiring live signals
Calibrating
HODL
DCA
STACK SATS
SEND IT
FULL SEND
"It's going up forever, Laura."· Michael Saylor
"How many chairs are you sitting on right now?"· Michael Saylor
"There is no second best."· Michael Saylor
"There is no end to up. #Bitcoin"· Michael Saylor
"The halls of eternity echo with the cries of those who sold their #bitcoin."· Michael Saylor
"You may not be interested in #Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is interested in you."· Michael Saylor
"#Bitcoin is the Meme-ing of Life."· Michael Saylor
"There will never be more than 21 million #bitcoin."· Michael Saylor
"Bitcoin is the hardest money on earth."· Michael Saylor
"My formula for success is rise early, work late, and buy Bitcoin."· Michael Saylor
"Fiat currency is a melting ice cube."· Michael Saylor
"You do not sell your Bitcoin."· Michael Saylor
"I will be buying at the top forever."· Michael Saylor
"Bitcoin is an ark of encrypted energy to escape the currency flood."· Michael Saylor
"Only invest what you can't afford to lose."· Michael Saylor
Instruments
Twist to experiment
mvrv·
mayer·
puell·
funding·
fear·
price·
30d·
hour-of-day·
day-of-week·
mstr·
Source acquisition
MVRV
✓ done
Mayer Multiple
✓ done
Puell Multiple
✓ done
Funding Rate
✓ done
Fear & Greed
✓ done
Price vs 30d MA
✓ done
30d Realized Vol
✓ done
Hour-of-Day pattern
✓ done
Day-of-Week pattern
✓ done
MSTR mNAV
✓ done
Block height
✓ done
BTC SPOT · LIVE
$75,832-0.1%24h
Bitcoin Buying Gauge · Live Verdict
Should you be stacking right now? The needle has no bag to pump, no thesis to sell, and no feelings · it just reads ten on-chain and market signals. Higher means a better entry. Watch where it points, then read the verdict below.Try it: drag the needle, twist the signals, or hit play to start a sim.
✊ click & drag · or use arrow keys
0/100
SEND IT
HODL
DCA
STACK SATS
SEND IT
FULL SEND
block #950,710 · live
Instruments
Twist to experiment
16%80
14%100
13%80
12%70
10%72
9%57
7%70
6%100
7%49
6%51
The gauge says SEND IT. Sentiment is darkening and the all-clear hasn't sounded · this is where the disciplined stack while everyone else waits to feel safe. Few understand this. Top contributors: Mayer Multiple, MVRV, Puell Multiple.
Next strong windowin 3h 16m · Sat 7pm–9pm ET · projected 61/100
Today's reading + historical hour/day pattern · not a forward prediction
The Contrarian Thesis
“Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own.”
The Bitcoin Buying Gauge is a contrarian instrument by design. It glows brightest exactly when traditional sentiment is at its worst · when normal people are scared, valuations have compressed, and short-sellers are dominating the order book.
Specifically, the gauge tilts toward STACK HUGE when:
+18% drops below 1.0 · meaning the average bitcoin holder is underwater on cost basis.
+14% goes negative · shorts are paying longs to keep their positions open. The crowd is positioned for prices to go lower.
+12%reads “Extreme Fear” · the public sentiment composite is screaming sell.
+7%MSTR compresses below 1.05× · the most public bitcoin treasury company is trading at or below the value of its underlying coins. The smart money has stopped paying a premium.
Translated: when your group chat is depressing, your barber is confidently explaining why bitcoin is dead this time, and your normie friends finally stop asking · that's when this page lights up.
It almost never feels good to act when the gauge says it should. That's the entire point of the page · to give you a single place to check whether the divergence between sentiment and data is in your favor. Higher score = bigger divergence = better moment to act on conviction rather than feelings.
Right now the gauge says SEND IT (75/100). The divergence is real but not extreme, the kind of setup that rewards conviction without requiring heroism.
Share the verdict
Tell someone the gauge says SEND IT
Opens X with a pre-filled tweet. Anyone clicking the link sees a live preview card with today's score (auto-refreshes when the gauge moves).
Each cell is one hour. Brighter = predicted better entry window relative to the rest of this 7-day view. Hover any cell for its score; the current hour pulses; the three best upcoming hours are marked ★.
12a
6a
12p
6p
Sat
★
★
★
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Signal Cockpit
Loading signal history…
Sat Calculator
How many sats does your dollar buy right now, and how does that compare to Bitcoin's recent prices?
$$1,000
Today
1,318,705sats
BTC price
$75,832
Same $1,000 at past prices
When
Sats per $1,000
vs today
7 days ago
1,278,688@ $78,205
+3.1%
30 days ago
1,286,287@ $77,743
+2.5%
90 days ago
1,483,712@ $67,399
-11.1%
1 year ago
896,414@ $111,556
+47.1%
+% means today gives you more sats per dollar than that past moment did · today is the relatively better entry. −%means the past was a better deal (you missed a dip). All comparisons use Bitcoin's actual closing price at each lookback window.
DCA Backtest
If you'd DCA'd into Bitcoin
Pick a weekly amount and a start date and see what your stack would look like today. Walks the actual hourly price series.
$
Total spent
$2,650
53 weekly buys
Sats stacked
2,907,710
0.0291 BTC
Worth today
$2,205
@ $75,832/BTC
Return
-16.8%
avg buy $91,137
Backtest uses Bitcoin's actual hourly closing prices over the last ~400 days. One purchase per week at the closing price nearest to that week's start. Doesn't model exchange fees or spread. Past performance is not a forecast, but the math compounds.
Get an email when the gauge fires
Don't check the page every day. We'll tell you.
One email when the Buying Gauge crosses into STACK NOW or STACK HUGE territory · or into HOLD on the euphoric end. Both extremes are noteworthy. Most months you'll get zero emails; on extreme weeks you'll get one a day at most.
Email is stored at Resend (the sending provider). One-click unsubscribe in every email. We'll never share or sell it. No marketing emails · alerts only.
How this works
The Bitcoin Buying Gauge answers one question for accumulators: is now a better-than-average time to deploy capital?
It is a contrarian answer by design. The gauge lights up brightest when Fear & Greed is screaming sell, when shorts are paying longs, when the average bitcoin holder is underwater on cost basis, and when the most public bitcoin treasury stops trading at a premium to its coins. In other words: when buying feels worst.
The framing matters. The page assumes you're going to buy bitcoin eventually · maybe today, maybe across this week, maybe with a paycheck arriving Friday. There is no "bad" time to stack on a long enough horizon. There are better times, though, and the difference between a good entry and a poor one compounds in sats.
So the verdict is a single number from 0 to 100, with a tier word for at-a-glance reading:
0–20 HOLD
crowd is euphoric
21–40 STACK SMALL
patience pays
41–60 STACK
DCA on schedule
61–80 STACK NOW
stack with conviction
81–100 STACK HUGE
blood in the streets
The score blends ten signals. Each signal contributes a weighted vote; when a data source is temporarily unavailable, its weight redistributes proportionally across the survivors. Signals are organized into four rough buckets: (MVRV, Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple), (funding rate), (Fear & Greed, price-vs-30d, realized vol, time-of-day, day-of-week), and (MSTR mNAV).
Data freshness · cite this page
Last updated
Galaxy Mind, "Bitcoin Buying Gauge," https://galaxymind.space/stack, accessed May 23, 2026.
Market cap divided by realized cap. Below 1.0 means the average bitcoin holder is underwater · historically a strong accumulation zone. Above 3.0 is rare and tends to coincide with cycle tops.
Mayer Multiple · Price ÷ 200-day Moving Average
weight 14%
How far price has stretched from its long-run trend. Below 1.0 puts you in 'cheap relative to the cycle' territory; above 2.4 has historically marked frothy markets.
Puell Multiple · Miner Issuance vs 365-day Average
weight 13%
Today's daily issuance value (in USD) divided by its 365-day moving average. When this drops below 0.5, miners are earning far less than they have been on average · they capitulate, sell coins, and accumulators benefit. Every major bottom (Dec 2018, Mar 2020, Nov 2022) printed below 0.5; every major top printed above 4.0.
Funding Rate · Perpetual Futures Funding
weight 12%
How much long-side traders are paying short-side traders to hold a position open (or vice versa). Negative funding means shorts are paying longs · i.e., the market is positioned bearishly. That's contrarian-bullish for spot buyers.
Fear & Greed · Crowd Sentiment Index
weight 10%
A composite of social sentiment, volatility, and momentum. We invert it: extreme fear is a green light for accumulators, extreme greed is a yellow flag.
Price vs 30d MA · Short-term Mean Reversion
weight 9%
Where price sits relative to its 30-day moving average. Trading below the 30d MA tends to revert upward; trading well above tends to mean-revert downward.
30d Realized Vol · Recent Volatility
weight 7%
Annualized volatility from the last 30 days of returns. Quiet markets (vol < 40%) often precede moves; very high vol (> 100%) often brackets capitulation lows.
Hour-of-Day · Time-of-Day Pattern
weight 7%
Bitcoin trades 24/7, but it doesn't trade evenly. We look at the average hourly return over the last ~2 years for the current ET hour. Hours that have historically been weak become better entry windows.
Day-of-Week · Day-of-Week Pattern
weight 6%
Same idea as Hour-of-Day but for weekdays. Sunday afternoons and weekday Asian-session opens have historically shown different baselines than US trading hours.
MSTR mNAV · Treasury Premium (Smart Money Proxy)
weight 6%
MicroStrategy's market cap divided by the value of its bitcoin holdings. When this premium compresses below 1.05×, treasury equity is trading near or below its underlying BTC value · historically correlated with BTC bottoms because the marginal sophisticated buyer prefers spot at those moments.
The 7-day forecast
The heatmap above the cockpit shows 168 cells (7 days × 24 hours) of predicted entry attractiveness. Each cell blends three things: today's score (decayed linearly toward neutral as the forecast extends out), the historical pattern for that hour-of-day in ET, and the historical pattern for that day-of-week. The brightest cells are your best windows. The current cell pulses.
This is not a price prediction. It's a relative-attractiveness forecast: which hours look like better-than-average accumulation windows given everything we know right now.
Honest caveats
This is a thinking tool, not advice. Past patterns don't guarantee future ones. Time-of-day and day-of-week effects are real but small; on a horizon of years, they're a rounding error compared to just showing up consistently.
The data is fetched on every page load and cached briefly. Some signals (block height, funding rate) refresh quickly; others (200-day MA, MVRV) are slow-moving by design. If a signal shows as unavailable, the upstream temporarily isn't responding, the score still works, it just routes around the missing input.
Built by @GalaxyMind. Open to suggestions. DMs are open. All views are wrong; some are useful.
Bitcoin Buying Gauge · Live Verdict
Should you be stacking right now? The needle has no bag to pump, no thesis to sell, and no feelings · it just reads ten on-chain and market signals. Higher means a better entry. Watch where it points, then read the verdict below.Try it: drag the needle, twist the signals, or hit play to start a sim.
✊ click & drag · or use arrow keys
0/100
SEND IT
HODL
DCA
STACK SATS
SEND IT
FULL SEND
block #950,710 · live
Instruments
Twist to experiment
16%80
14%100
13%80
12%70
10%72
9%57
7%70
6%100
7%49
6%51
Signal Cockpit
The ten inputs voting on the verdict above. Each gauge fills proportional to its reading · orange fill = buy signal, icy blue fill = wait. The fuller a gauge glows, the harder that signal is pushing the verdict. Peak-pegged gauges throw lava sparks; floor-pegged gauges throw ice shards. Tap the i on any card to learn what that signal measures.