Spiral of doom (mNAV reflexivity)

The reflexive risk a Bitcoin treasury company faces when its stock falls below NAV (mNAV under 1.0). Above NAV it can issue shares accretively, raising a dollar to buy more than a dollar of bitcoin per share; below NAV that flywheel reverses, because issuing equity becomes dilutive and cuts off the cheapest funding for more bitcoin, which can pressure the stock further.

A brief, shallow discount is noise; a deep, persistent one is what turns reflexivity into a genuine risk rather than a buying opportunity. Gross mNAV alone can overstate the danger, since a leveraged company can sit at or above parity on a net (CEBE) basis once senior claims are accounted for.