MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
Bitcoin's market capitalization divided by the aggregate cost basis of all coins (their realized value). MVRV below 1.0 means the average holder is underwater · historically a strong accumulation signal. Every major Bitcoin cycle bottom (Dec 2018, Mar 2020, Nov 2022) printed MVRV below 1.0.
How to read it
MVRV compares what the market says all coins are worth against what holders actually paid. Below 1.0 the average holder is underwater, which historically marks capitulation. Between 1.0 and 2.5 is the unremarkable middle. Above 3.5 the average coin has more than tripled and the urge to take profit becomes a structural headwind. It is a slow, cycle-scale signal: useless for timing a week, excellent for telling you which part of the cycle you are standing in.
On Galaxy Mind
MVRV is the heaviest signal in the Buying Gauge at 16%. The /stack signal cockpit shows its current value, its normalized 0-100 contribution, and a 30-day sparkline. When Coinmetrics is unreachable the gauge redistributes the weight rather than guessing, and the signal card says so.
Context
Every major cycle bottom printed MVRV below 1.0: December 2018, March 2020, November 2022. Every major top printed above 3.5, and the 2017 peak reached nearly 4.7. The metric's power is its memory: realized value moves slowly because it reprices only when coins actually move.